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2007年08月17日 16:13:06

Test & Measurement Market Overview

Test & Measurement Market Dynamics
Each sub-segment in the test and measurement space is characterized by a different set of trends and dynamics:
    The communications test sub-segment is largely driven by spending in the telecom equipment market and the customers are challenged with creating testing solutions to test ever-evolving standards.
    The automated test equipment (ATE)/semiconductor test sub-segment is driven by three major factors: ATE test equipment utilization rates, chip volumes being shipped, and the future market sentiments of integrated device manufacturers.
    The general-purpose test sub-segment contains a more diverse set of equipment and therefore responds to more general economy fluctuations.
Ⅰ.Communication Test Market Dynamics
The communication test sub-segment is closely tied to the telecommunications segment. Specifically, the communications test sub-segment moves in conjunction with the capital expenditures in the telecommunications segment.
After the 2001 correction, capital expenditures was relatively flat (see Figure 1) and, subsequently, the communication test sub-segment has also experienced flat growth over that same period.
Figure 1. Worldwide Telecommunication Capital Expenditures


Note to Figure 1:
1.   2005 values are forecasted.
The communication test sub-segment is roughly a $5 billion market growing at a compound annual rate of 5 percent. This sub-segment is comprised of wireline test ($3 billion, 3 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR)) and wireless Test ($2 billion, 8 percent CAGR).
（1）Wireless Test Equipment
    Spectrum/Noise Analyzers
    Signal Generators
    Handset Emulators/Testers
    Base Station Test
    Tx/Rx Vector Network Tester
    Modulation Domain Tester
（2）Wireline Test Equipment
    Spectrum Analyzers
    Signal Generators
    Network Protocol Analyzers
    DSL Testers
    SONET/SDH Testers
    Intellectual Property (IP) Router Testers
（3）Market Trends & Dynamics
The following determines market trends and dynamics in the communication space:
    The telecommunication capital spending only marginally increasing since 2001
    Communication test spending generally flat
    Test equipment vendors are focusing on and designing reconfigurable platforms:
      Allows for derivative product offerings; leverage the same development and position the product at various performance and price points
      Make test equipment “future-resistant” to extend product life
    Heavy focus on reducing price per port
    Extensive need for functionality testing
    Ideal for small “boutique” companies—over 50 percent of the test market owned by small test vendors
    The following makes FPGAs a logical choice:
      Feature creep
      Constant requests for upgrades
      Evolving and emerging communication standards/protocols
    Early access to leading edge-technology is critical:
      Usually a 12- to 18-month difference between start of test equipment development and mass technology adoption
Ⅱ.Automated Test Equipment (ATE) Market Trends
The ATE/semiconductor test space is an extremely cyclical sub-segment which experiences dramatic upturns and sudden and extreme downturns. As an example, during the 12-month period from the second half of 2003 to the first half of 2004, certain ATE vendors grew revenues over 100 percent. In the second half of 2004, these same vendors shipped few to no systems.
For much of 2005, the ATE market has shown a slow to steady recovery and the booking rates have steadly grown pointing to a sustainable mid-term outlook.
The ATE/semiconductor test segment is comprised of six distinct types of testers:.
    Analog/Linear Test
    Mixed Signal Test
    RF/Microwave Test
    Digital/Logic Test
    Memory Test
    System-on-Chip (SOC) Test
The ATE market is driven by semiconductor chip volumes. As chip volumes steadly increase, the demand for chip testers also grows. See Figure 1.
Figure 1. Total Memory Versus All Other Semiconductors




Note to Figure 1:
1.   2005 values are forecasted.
Given the sharp increase in usage of memory devices in end products such as home appliances, cell phones, and automobilies, it’s no surprise that the memory tester sub-segment is the largest in the ATE space (see Table 1).
Table 1. ATE/Semiconductor Market Size

Segment

Annual Revenues 2004 ($Million)
CAGR (1)
Memory Test
$1,000
3%
Mixed Signal Test
$800
9%
Digital/Logic Test
$500
4%
Other (SOC, RF, Analog)
$900
13%
Note to Table 1:
1.   CAGR = compound annual growth rate.
Market Trends & Dynamics
The following determines market trends and dynamics in the ATE space:
    ATE vendors are tied to a boom and bust cycle
    Test equipment orders:
      Capital utilization rates drive capital equipment orders
        Customers buy on technology, low-failure rates (i.e., equipment reliability), and ability to delivery systems on time
      Device manufacturers’ sentiment on the future of chip volumes
    Reducing test times is key; lower test times equates to more devices tested which leads to higher revenues
    Each customer has their own testing methodology—leads to a high mix/low volume business (except memory market which is high volume)
    Customers want:
      To extend return on investment (ROI) of existing systems—need for in-field upgrades
      To test different technologies from day-to-day—need for flexibility in the system
    ATE vendors have a limited customer base (only 25 major independent device manufacturers and 10 independent test houses worldwide)
    ATE vendors attempt to tie development of system(s) to one “teaching” customer and ultimately leverage sales to many “production” customers






Ⅲ.General-Purpose Test Market Trends
The general-purpose test sub-segment is diverse and includes oscilloscopes, signal generators, automotive diagnostics equipment, and broadcast video testers. Because of its diverse nature, the success of the general-purpose test sub-segment is tied to a wide range of end markets and can only be characterized as tracking the general high-tech market.
（1）General-Purpose Test Systems
    Oscilloscopes
    Spectrum Analyzers
    Signal Generators
    Logic Analyzers
    Arbitrary Waveform and Function Generators
    Multimeters
    Network Analyzers
（2）Market Size
Table 1 shows the general-purpose test market size.
Table 1. General-Purpose Test Market Size

Segment

Annual Revenues 2004 ($Million)
CAGR (1)
Oscilloscopes
$1,000
3%
Spectrum Analyzers
$600
5%
Signal Generators
$500
4%
Network Analyzers
$300
4%
（3）Market Trends & Dynamics
The following determines market trends and dynamics in the general-purpose test market space:
    Very fragmented market segment
      A broad array of customers with very broad test and measurement needs
      Many test solution vendors offering point/custom solutions
    Test vendors moving their solutions to a modular approach:
      Logic analyzers & oscilloscopes as an example moving towards a single board computer (SBC) running Windows/Linux OS

Test and Measurement (T&M) equipments are used across all electronic equipment industries from consumer, automotive, defense, semiconductor manufacturing, professional video broadcast and communications.
They are critical in how they are used to verify functionality and performance during R&D, manufacturing, and even after installation. As a whole, the $20 billion T&M market will experience small to moderate long-term growth, with higher growth expected for the communications sector, which makes up major portion of the industry at roughly 37%. The communications test and measurement market in 2001 was worth $4.4 billion and forecasted to be worth $5.3 billion in 2006, a 4.4% CAGR.

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